Transitioning Forex market
| 22 February 2011
The Foreign Exchange market has long been in a transition period where price action and volatility has drawn directionless on an intraday basis. Why we say this is because for the past few weeks price actions only reaches its peak upon release of economic data. True enough, that some speculative trades have been slowly deteriorating.
This is equally true where the previous report from JP Morgan shows exactly the Forex volatility have decreased over the past few years. Others may disagree, nevertheless the fact remains that the only increase on volatility can be found by the middles of each week's trading. Moreover, the upcoming reports on US Consumer Confidence may yet to prove to be friendly to the USD in spite of its vulnerable low price levels. The USDX at the 77.65 basis point; or below the significant 78.05 has been bearish. Giving a renewed tone for both the Euro and the British Pound.
Currently working at the 1.3580 and 1.6155 levels for both pairs has resulted to a mix corrective move on a daily basis. Although, the near term trend still remains intact to move higher is there, but the steam of loosing its rally thereafter would hold a possible USD short term recovery towards the end of the 1st quarter of the year. The USD short term recovery may lead other major players to adjust their respective positions for the quarter that may lead to further losses along the way on a weekly basis. As indicated by its relative cross rate of EURGBP re-testing its lower band between its HI/LO indicators. And this has been the overall scenario on a more technical analysis of how the current market behavior has been seen. We remain bearish for the near term especially for the EURGBP cross rate from our previous market view report.And for the GBPUSD to hold steady with corrective moves higher for price adjustments.
As the transitioning period from the recent EURO rally would turn into a bearish market. No specific dates; however we do advice to carefully watch the Cross rate price movement between the three (3) winning pairs to loose ground towards the next couple of weeks, if not earlier than most would expect becasue this is the true nature of trading the foreign exchange market. " Expect the unexpected, during unexpected times."
The mere fact that Japan's Sakikabara the know to many as Mr Yen have indicated that the USDJPY may be seen below the 80.00. Which leads us to believe that such a trade strategy could occur and simply contradict his statements. This however, remains to be seen and speculated upon.Why we mentioned it is becasue of the relative relation with the GBPJPY cross rate that we have been calling since December of 2010 to remain i its bullish state.
True enough with the corrective moves opening higher and subsequestly going lower, yet still manage to remain higher with higher bottoms have been the norm of this currency pair. Making its highest price at the 135.45 levels for the week and from a low vantage entry level at 129.80-132.20 range has proven to be lesser of a risk. Pls refer to our trend-follwoing analysis reports for the past two weeks. As much of the market is thin with barely enough to inspire fresh trades, traders and investors are all waiting for the consumer confidence report, the Bank of England minutes of their meeting,UK durable goods and GDP report. While the clincher would be Fridays' US GDP and the University of Michigan report.
