Fundamental Supports Technical

Written by Trade Team | 01 March 2010

A valid Market Trend is reinforced through volumes

The Foreign Currencies past performance was undoubtedly been much a surprise to the traders when the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD made their dramatic follow through movement lower touching 1.5150 and 1.3450 respectively that led the EUR/GBP to move higher touching an inital high of 0.8972 before the closing of the week and month of Feb. 26.

Such correction on the closing were also expected as it has been a short trading hour after all the mix economic reports that came out for the week that still sustained the levels from the opening of the week for the US Dollar Index closing at 80.35. Not much have really change on the fundamental side of the equation as the highlights for the European currencies were focused on Germany and France's support for Greece financial crisis. These two major economic countries have taken a stronger stance as the after effects for the Euro is weighing in more on the EUR/USD and now rippling through the GBP/USD in spite of the better numbers from the reports coming out from the UK.

Although, the Major trend on the Major pairs are still down and would be quite difficult to pin point a possible reversal pattern. As the technicals showing its extreme numbers from the over pressured price movements in both directions, everyone is waiting for some signals that may be good for scalping opportunities for traders on the retail side. The opening prices for both the GBP and the EUR/GBP had an opening gap from the closing prices of Feb. 26 as prices were influenced by the European news again on Germany and France efforts to assist Greece. this has led for the EUR/GBP to continue it momentum in the European session and may spill over to the US session. However, every gaps made on a technical basis often pulls back simply to cover such gaps. A possible run away gap may only occur whenever the USD may gain more strength moving forward this coming few weeks.

Looking at the the GBP/USD at its initial support and target levels at 1.4930 and may probably hit the 1.4880 ultimate objective based on the measure of its down turn this would occur on a technical basis on the Fibonacci extension to the 1.4770; then the possible pull back would also occur. This would lead some stoploss and settlement orders from earlier buyers who bought at the oversold area. As for the EUR/GBP initial guide to the 0.9126 - .9136 levels respectively and may occur the same scenario like the GBP/USD . As long as the momentum still exists in the USD rather than the Euro and British Pound individual as a pair to hold the prices otherwise a whip-saw will happen as the new month and week just started.

There has been a wait and see attitude since the closing numbers came. However, a noticeable scenario which some may or may not have noticed is the relationship of the Gold And USD same directional path that they have been taking and their both heading towards the high. On a day to day basis it would be identified, but the overall trend has been in line with each other.

As far as value relationship is also concerned, the Japanese Yen's strength is also in line with the strength of the USD where the USD/JPY is at the 89.23 as of this writing with a low at 88.54 for the month. With the USDX at 80.35 with a high at 81.35.

Combining the Technical tools and analysis as to where all the above currencies and gold prices may eventually show some clearer signals as to the directional trend and price reversal can take place. For the time being , observe the price behavior based on the one page indicator that we normally apply to be able to find some signals from the analytics of the USD price settlement on a day to day basis. As long as no significant fundamental news reports that may come out we do maintain our stance with a US dollar corrective movement lower only to adjusts its technically driven chart areas just to leave some elbow room to continue its upward trend.

Good Luck and the Best for all your Trades!